The value of Bitcoin (BTC) has been wavering within a consolidation bracket, unable to surpass the formidable $110K resistance level. The overall market sentiment remains ambiguous, with spot and derivatives data revealing a mixed reaction.
As we near the end of the week, BTC’s price movement is caught between dynamic supports and a stubborn supply zone. This could be a precursor to a substantial breakout or breakdown, depending on liquidity trends in the upcoming sessions.
Looking at the daily timeframe, BTC exhibits a triangle pattern, characterized by nearly equal lows near $100,000 and lower highs indicating continued selling pressure. Despite this, the key trendline support since March remains unbroken, keeping the price within the larger ascending channel.
Currently, BTC is striving to stabilize around $106K, with the RSI floating around 51, suggesting an equilibrium in momentum. If the upward push over the descending resistance and the $110K supply zone is unsuccessful, liquidity below $100K could be targeted.
The 100 and 200-day moving averages are on an upward trend, hinting at a bullish crossover and reinforcing the long-term bullish structure. However, multiple rejections from the $110K zone make this area a crucial pivot point. A daily closure above could tilt the scale towards bullishness, while a plunge below the orange trendline support could hasten a drop towards the lower boundary of the large channel.
On the 4-hour chart, BTC has rebounded from a local low of $103K, leaving a considerable pool of liquidity in its wake. The price is now pushing back into a fair value gap (FVG) in the $106K zone, which now serves as a supply barrier. The RSI is trending upwards at 55, indicating mild bullish momentum, though the overhead bearish trendline restricts any sudden movements.
A breakout above the FVG backed by robust volume could pave the way to retest $110K. Conversely, if this area is defended by sellers, we could see a sweep below $103K, targeting the $102K and potentially $100K liquidation zones. Currently, the short-term structure leans towards bullishness, but the market remains range-bound between liquidity pools.
The Spot Taker CVD chart over a 90-day view reveals a resurgence in aggressive buying dominance (green), following a lengthy period of neutrality and selling pressure. This shift suggests that market buyers are regaining confidence, absorbing sell orders at current prices. Historically, when CVD flips green after extended red or grey phases, it precedes upward momentum.
This renewed spot demand implies that large buyers are positioning themselves during this range phase. If this behavior persists while the price holds above key supports, a strong breakout could be on the horizon. However, if the CVD begins to flatten or turn red again without a corresponding price advance, it may signal exhaustion and predict another sweep of downside liquidity or even a full-scale bearish reversal.
