Recent reports reveal that Binance’s USDT and USDC balances reached a historic high of $31 billion in June 2025, reviving hopes of an imminent altcoin surge. Crypto analyst Timo Oinonen interprets this increase in stablecoin reserves as an indication of a possible “liquidity explosion,” with investors holding onto low-volatility assets as they await clear altcoin trading signals.
From 2023 to late 2024, there was a strong correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and stablecoin reserves on Binance. However, since early 2025, this trend has reversed as Bitcoin continues to be withdrawn, and stablecoins are pouring into Binance wallets. This pattern suggests that capital is ready for deployment.
With the total market cap for the global stablecoin now surpassing $254 billion—USDT leading at $159 billion and USDC at $62 billion—it’s evident that there’s a significant inflow of liquidity. Oinonen predicts a potential explosive upside for the altcoin market when this “dry powder” is allocated.
CEO of Alpharactal, João Wedson, notes that the Altcoin Season Index shows promising signs. Given Bitcoin’s performance in recent months, Wedson suggests that it might be the perfect time to acquire other tokens at a lower rate against BTC.
As Bitcoin consolidates near recent peaks, a growing reserve imbalance on Binance and a decrease in Bitcoin dominance suggest a possible resurgence for altcoins. Over the last three months, Bitcoin’s dominance has slowly dwindled, implying a shift of capital away from BTC. This shift, however, has not fully materialized in the broader altcoin market yet.
The TOTAL2 chart, representing the total market cap excluding Bitcoin, is still beneath a crucial resistance level at $1.25 trillion. Despite attempts in May and June to break this level, the chart has only produced a series of higher lows.
Current price trends are forming a potential cup-and-handle pattern, a bullish continuation setup with an immediate upside target of $1.55 trillion if confirmed. This could potentially materialize in Q3 to Q4.
While a definite altcoin season is yet to happen, several markers are aligning. A weakening Bitcoin dominance, record-breaking stablecoin reserves on Binance, and a market structure forming beneath significant resistance could potentially trigger a widespread altcoin rally.
