Analysts are raising caution that Bitcoin’s ongoing uptrend may soon reach its zenith, not purely based on price fluctuations, but through a significant on-chain metric: the Market Value to Realized Value, 365-day moving average (MVRV 365DMA).
In a recent analysis dated July 28, CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei_dent highlighted that the current 2025 cycle resembles the “double-top camel” pattern observed in 2021, characterized by two peaks occurring approximately six months apart, followed by a challenging bear market.
MVRV Issuing a Warning
The MVRV 365DMA is renowned for its historical reliability in signaling market cycle tops. This metric evaluates the average profit or loss of holders over a year. In 2021, it formed a dual-peak structure before Bitcoin embarked on a prolonged downturn. According to Yonsei’s analysis, this year’s pattern is mimicking that setup, with the initial peak already in place and a second potentially forming around September 10, if history repeats itself.
Market observers have advised traders that despite Bitcoin’s push toward the $119,000 mark, they should “tighten risk management and remain agile,” as the MVRV is a lagging indicator, suggesting that Bitcoin’s actual price peak might occur sooner, possibly by late August.
“We are entering a phase where optimism and caution must coexist,” he stated. “Allow on-chain timing to guide your strategy.”
This cautious perspective contrasts sharply with the prevailing market sentiment, which remains largely bullish following a weekly candle close at $119,466. Analyst Rekt Capital noted that this break indicates a potential breakout from a long-term bull flag pattern.
Nonetheless, underlying issues are emerging. As CryptoVizArt recently observed, a bearish divergence between price and the RSI could be weakening bullish momentum, with a liquidation cluster around $114,000 to $113,600 posing a mid-term downside risk.
Steady Price Action
As of Monday, Bitcoin is trading at $118,800 per CoinMarketCap, marking a 0.5% increase in 24 hours and 3.4% below its all-time high of $123,091, achieved on July 14. While the asset has appreciated by 10.6% over the past month and 75% over the last year, its weekly change remains nearly flat at just 0.1%, indicating a possible pause in momentum.
The original cryptocurrency has fluctuated between $117,953 and $119,754 in the last 24 hours, and between $115,184 and $119,959 over the past week, showing it is still consolidating within a narrow range. With the MVRV ratio flashing caution and macroeconomic factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts on the horizon, the upcoming six weeks could be pivotal if Yonsei_dent’s assessment proves accurate.
