The Bitcoin bottom signal that once preceded a 1,900% rally has emerged again, offering a glimmer of hope to the crypto community. This pivotal on-chain metric is signaling a potential cycle-low setup, reminiscent of the 2018 market conditions.
Analyzing the Bitcoin Bottom Signal
Recent data from Checkonchain reveals that Bitcoin’s short-term holder stress has plummeted to levels not seen since the 2018 bear market bottom. The Short-Term Holder (STH) Bollinger Band metric shows the oscillator diving into its deepest oversold territory in nearly eight years. This indicator evaluates the gap between Bitcoin’s spot price and the average cost basis of short-term holders—those who have held BTC for less than 155 days. An oscillator piercing the lower statistical band indicates Bitcoin is trading significantly below recent purchase prices, suggesting potential for a macro bottom.
Historical Performance and Future Predictions
Historically, this Bitcoin bottom signal has coincided with substantial rallies. A similar oversold condition in late 2018 led to a 150% rally within a year and culminated in a 1,900% BTC price increase over three years. The November 2022 bottom also flashed this signal, preceding a 700% surge to record highs near $126,270. Short-term holder whales have shown resilience since Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak near $126,000, indicating they have not yet capitulated, as realized losses remain muted.
Market Insights and Predictions
Prominent analysts, including those from crypto custodian MatrixPort, suggest these metrics indicate seller exhaustion, supporting the bottoming outlook. Furthermore, Wells Fargo strategists anticipate a near-term liquidity boost for Bitcoin. They project that larger-than-usual US tax refunds in 2026 could inject up to $150 billion into equities and Bitcoin by March’s end, potentially absorbing remaining sell pressure and reinforcing the idea of a Bitcoin bottom emerging soon.
As the market anticipates a possible rebound, it is crucial for investors to stay informed and analyze these key metrics to make educated decisions.
