Updated 28 October 2026: rewritten, expanded and fact-checked against the sources listed in the article.
Shares of Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL), the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, fell 17.5% on Tuesday, 30 June 2026. They closed at $62.63, down from $75.96 the day before (Yahoo Finance daily data). The trigger was the announcement of Open USD (OUSD), a rival dollar stablecoin backed by a consortium that includes Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock and Coinbase. At the 30 June close CRCL was down 21% for 2026, against a 31 December 2025 close of $79.30. On 1 July, as Stocktwits reported, analysts’ price targets for the stock ranged from $55 to $650.
This article sets out what Open USD is, what each analyst said, and why Circle’s agreement with Coinbase came up in almost every note. It is not a price forecast. Analyst targets are opinions and are attributed below.
What is Open USD?
Open USD was announced on 30 June 2026 by Open Standard, a company formed to run it. The Block reported that more than 140 companies had joined. Named participants included Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Discover, Stripe, BlackRock, BNY, Standard Chartered, U.S. Bank, BBVA, Google, Shopify, IBM, Coinbase, OKX, Bybit, MetaMask, Ripple and Galaxy.
The key difference from USDC is economics. Circle keeps the interest earned on USDC reserves and pays some of it to distribution partners. Open USD says it will pass “nearly all reserve revenues” to the companies that grow adoption, after a small management fee. It also says businesses can mint and redeem without fees (Open Standard website). Governance is shared among member companies rather than held by a single issuer.
Not every listed member agreed with the announcement. On 3 July The Block, citing Chosun Biz, reported that Samsung Electronics and Dunamu said they had been listed without formal agreement. We covered that dispute here.
Why the market reacted
Circle earns almost all its revenue from interest on USDC reserves. Stocktwits noted that reserve income made up more than 99% of revenue and that Circle paid Coinbase almost $908 million in 2024 for distributing USDC. A rival that hands reserve income to distributors could push Circle to share more, or pull partners away.
The Coinbase relationship is set by a Collaboration Agreement effective 18 August 2023, filed with Circle’s annual report (Exhibit 10.1, SEC). Under its terms:
- The initial term runs three years, to August 2026.
- If the parties do not agree new terms, it renews automatically for three-year terms for each stablecoin that meets set “threshold criteria” for both sides. If Circle fails its criteria, Coinbase may terminate at its sole discretion.
- Coinbase receives income linked to USDC held on its platform, plus 50% of the “Residual Payment Base”, the remaining reserve income after other allocations.
What the analysts said (as reported 1 July 2026)
| Firm (analyst) | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|
| Compass Point | Upgraded to Neutral from Sell | $55 (cut from $97) |
| Susquehanna (James Friedman) | Initiated at Neutral | $69 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | $106 |
| Clear Street (Owen Lau) | Buy | $157 |
| William Blair (Andrew Jeffrey) | Outperform | $650 |
All figures come from the Stocktwits report. Compass Point did not expect OUSD to gain traction in DeFi or crypto trading, or to affect Circle’s EBITDA much within two years. It flagged the 18 August Coinbase renewal date. Susquehanna called the valuation “full” given Circle’s reliance on reserve income. Clear Street’s Owen Lau called the sell-off “excessive”. William Blair said the market had overreacted and that competition confirmed the size of the opportunity. Morgan Stanley said Coinbase walking away at renewal was “very unlikely”.
What happened next
- Visa platform (16 July): Visa launched a Visa Stablecoin Platform that initially supports Open USD, and CRCL fell more than 5% intraday (Stocktwits). Our report: CRCL drop after Visa backs Open USD.
- Q2 results (5 August): Circle reported $701 million of total revenue and reserve income, up 7% year on year, and net income from continuing operations of $48 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $143 million. USDC in circulation was $73.3 billion at 30 June 2026, up 19% year on year, and the reserve return rate fell to 3.5% (Q2 2026 release, SEC). The release did not mention the Coinbase renewal or Open USD.
- Tazapay deal (8 September): Circle agreed to buy Singapore payments firm Tazapay for $400 million in Class A stock (8-K).
- Binance deal (17 September): Circle signed a five-year agreement under which it pays Binance a monthly fee to promote USDC. Binance also bought 1,237,011 CRCL shares at $80.84 each, $100 million in total, with a lock-up of up to two years (8-K).
- Leadership (25 September): CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen said he would step down by 31 December 2026, and co-founder Sean Neville left the board (8-K).
Update, 28 October 2026: CRCL bottomed at a $60.35 close on 3 August and peaked at $103.23 on 3 September. It closed at $81.58 on 27 October, up 31.7% from the 1 July close of $61.95 and up 2.9% for the year (Yahoo Finance daily data). Open Standard’s site now says OUSD is live. We found no public statement on whether the Coinbase agreement renewed on its original terms or was amended. Circle had not released Q3 results as of this date.
What to watch
- Any disclosure on the Coinbase agreement, in Circle’s Q3 10-Q or Coinbase’s filings.
- OUSD’s circulation once it is live at scale, against USDC’s $73.3 billion.
- Interest rates. With reserve income at more than 99% of revenue, a lower reserve return rate hits revenue directly.
More background is in our guides hub.
Sources
- Stocktwits via TradingView, 1 July 2026
- The Block, 30 June 2026
- The Block, 3 July 2026
- Open Standard / Open USD website (accessed 28 October 2026)
- Coinbase–Circle Collaboration Agreement, Exhibit 10.1 to Circle 10-K (filed 9 March 2026)
- Circle Q2 2026 results, 5 August 2026
- Circle 8-K, Tazapay (filed 8 September 2026)
- Circle 8-K, Binance (filed 22 September 2026)
- Circle 8-K, CFO and board (25 September 2026)
- Stocktwits via TradingView, 16 July 2026
- CRCL prices: Yahoo Finance daily closing data, retrieved 28 October 2026
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How this article was made: first published on 1 July 2026 as an AI-assisted rewrite of a news report (original report by Stocktwits: TradingView News). On 28 October 2026 it was rewritten and expanded with AI assistance, and its facts and figures were checked against the primary sources linked above. How we work · Report an error
