On March 8, XRPUSD is grappling with mounting technical and fundamental challenges that indicate a prospective 20% price drop in the near term. A combination of recent market analyses and historical patterns suggests three key signals for investors to monitor.
A symmetrical triangle is currently being formed on XRPUSD’s weekly chart, a pattern indicative of a struggle between buyers and sellers. Contrary to common assumptions, symmetrical triangles do not always signal bullish continuation patterns. They highlight a bias conflict, often culminating in a breakout in either direction according to prevailing momentum. Similar setups have historically led to declines in the crypto markets, rather than bull runs. For instance, Ethereum’s 2018 triangle breakdown resulted in an 80% drop.
When such a scenario unfolds, the price usually ascends or descends towards the level equal to the triangle’s maximum height in length. Applying this technical rule to XRP suggests a downside target of approximately $1.46, which aligns with the 50-week exponential moving average.
XRP’s price took a hit after the White House’s inaugural Crypto Summit on March 7, when hopes about its potential inclusion in a US strategic crypto reserve quickly dimmed. Despite initial enthusiasm, it was clarified by President Donald Trump’s team that the mentioned cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and XRP, were merely illustrative examples, not official selections. Furthermore, there’s no proof that the US government holds XRP, and Trump’s broader stockpile strategy, focusing on altcoins, excludes new purchases. This revelation has already led to a 10% decline in the XRP market.
On the other hand, Bitcoin is clearly favored by the Trump administration, with the US also holding approximately $17.7 billion in BTC. Meanwhile, the XRP/BTC pair is consolidating within a historic distribution zone, yet it remains above the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave) at around 2,459 satoshis. A break below this level could push XRP/BTC toward the 50-2W EMA (the red wave) at around 1,700 satoshis, leading to a correlated decline in XRPUSD and thus increasing the risk of a 20% drop.
XRP’s trading volumes recently hit record heights, with analyst Martunn warning that XRP is in a distribution phase where large holders unload positions to retail buyers after a significant rally. This volume surge comes after XRP’s 600% increase from November 2024 to January 2025, a typical distribution setup.
In 2021, a similar volume explosion came before a lengthy downtrend, as selling pressure eventually overpowered demand. If history repeats itself, XRP could be in for another major correction, aligning with the symmetrical triangle breakdown explained earlier.
The decrease in XRP whale holdings further illustrates distribution. The whale balance has fallen from 94.21 billion to 90.21 billion XRP in a year, wiping out the increase from the post-US election “Trump pump”. Whales, or large investors/entities holding significant amounts, in this case, are those with balances over 1 million XRP.
When whales offload, it often signals a lack of confidence in the asset’s near-term performance, as these players usually have access to better market insights or strategic plans. Their selling can create a ripple effect, depleting liquidity and increasing selling pressure as smaller investors follow suit.
Disclaimer: This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
