With the U.S. election on the horizon, JPMorgan analysts have flagged a potential upswing in bitcoin and gold prices should Donald Trump secure a victory, crediting retail interest in the so-called “debasement trade.”
“Retail investors are seizing on the debasement trade more strongly by buying bitcoin and gold ETFs,” reported Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director at JPMorgan, in a Wednesday note. This retail-driven impulse also extends to meme and AI tokens, which have demonstrated stronger market cap gains.
Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.3 billion in net inflows over the past two days, totaling $4.4 billion for October alone, marking the third-largest monthly inflow since these ETFs debuted in January. This trend highlights retail investor interest in alternative assets as a hedge against currency debasement.
However, institutional investors have largely stepped back from bitcoin futures in recent weeks. “Bitcoin futures appear overbought, suggesting potential vulnerability in the near future,” noted JPMorgan, referencing CME bitcoin futures’ cumulative open interest changes.
Gold ETFs, similarly, have seen persistent retail-driven inflows. Institutional investors’ gold futures activity, however, has also hit a pause. “If a Trump victory encourages retail investors to buy risk assets and deepen the debasement trade, bitcoin and gold prices could experience significant gains,” concluded the analysts.
Earlier in October, JPMorgan projected a bullish outlook for crypto in 2025, citing an intensifying debasement trend and the potential Trump presidency.
